She has 2 films this year, Goldfinch and Fair & Balance! She had 4 films Last year and I predicted her to get at least a nod but sadly it didn't happen, Poor hard-working bitch.
I don't know possibly, but currently I'm not predicting her. Of course, it's still very early on so who knows what contenders will end up failing and what ones will emerge that no one or hardly anyone was predicting will emerge.
For
Fair & Balance, I thought it was pretty baity, and I couldn't even recognize Charlize Theron in makeup which I thought automatic nomination maybe win. However, at A_W, tyjagi said that the screenplay is like
Vice but even more meta. I think it could work once because Adam McKay was coming off of
The Big Short, and this year was pretty lackluster overall, I don't know if it can work twice especially as he's pretty down on the film's chances and usually he's a pretty good judge about such things.
For
The Goldfinch, I haven't read the novel, but I did read her character isn't very baity. I'm not sure if that's true, but if she could barely get any traction for
Boy Erased which had incredibly baity subject matter, and no traction at all for deglamming in
Destroyer, I don't see a nomination this year because at least at this point last year she had buzz around her, it just didn't go anywhere.
She could happen, but I think that either she needs to be in a Best Picture contender like in
Lion, which I don't see happening with either of her two films. Or she needs to be the critics favorite and win some major critics prizes, which surprisingly she has never done. (Although to her credit she has won Boston and KC, and placed at NYFCC twice.) I think she just makes it look too easy plus she's still one of the most beautiful actresses and has a great marriage, so I think she needs something extra to help her unless it's a really weak year which it doesn't look like it will be to me.
At least right now there's already possible contenders that have emerged. While Margot Robbie missed the Oscar nomination for
Mary, Queen of Scots, she went pretty far considering that the movie was like Focus's third or fourth contender, had okay reviews, and was compared to
The Favourite unfavorably by some. I think she's the new "it" girl now, so I'm penciling her in right now for
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Octavia Spencer got raves for
Luce. Neon gives me mixed feelings, but Spencer has been on such a hot streak that I could see her getting a record fourth nomination.
Annette Bening also got good ink for
The Report at Sundance. I don't see a win for her, but if the film can get a Best Picture nomination, I could see her getting a nomination since that would be a big boost especially in that category.
I've seen a lot of good buzz about
Jojo Rabbit, and it seems like Scarlett Johansson has been on the verge of a welcome to the club nomination for over 15 years now. Maybe this is the year that it finally happens. If not her, perhaps newcomer Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie.
There's also Laura Dern possibly for
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project which has gotten good buzz too lately although not as much as
Jojo Rabbit has, but Laura Dern has been singled out for praise in that buzz. I expect that Baumbach will breakout one day like other writer-directors Wes Anderson or Richard Linklater, so maybe this will be the project that does it for him. I know it's Netflix, and they have
The Irishman which will be their first contender along with other contenders as well, but Driver is coming off a nomination and could have banner year with raves already for
The Report plus I'm sure he'll get raves for
Star Wars: Episode IX. Plus Dern is well liked and respected in Hollywood, and she'll have
Little Women too.
Of course, you can never sleep on Meryl Streep. I would guess
The Laundromat will be her best chance, but maybe
Little Women will do better than I'm expecting right now.
