Avengers, or Episode IX? I know Star Wars comfortably won the battle back in 2015, but that was a big comeback against a middle chapter. This is two saga closers. We can probably safely assume Endgame will do more around the rest of the world, but in the US?
Avengers, and probably quite easily. Star Wars will do fine but the franchise really has lost its luster with the masses (though I do think The Last Jedi is still the best film in the franchise), whereas the MCU is the shiny toy for the current generation.
Star Wars trilogies have actually fallen into a nice pattern at the box office - there's an inverted bell curve, with the first part grossing the most and the second part grossing the least. The Empire Strikes Back grossed 68% of what A New Hope made and Return of the Jedi grossed 82%. Attack of the Clones grossed 70% of The Phantom Menace and Revenge of the Sith grossed 88%. The Last Jedi grossed 66% of The Force Awakens.
Based on all that, let's conservatively estimate that Episode IX grosses 78% of The Force Awakens. That would put its grosses at $730 million. Obviously, there's some guesswork there and potential unknown factors, but it seems like a reasonable estimate.
The real question, though, is what will Endgame do relative to Infinity War? Marvel sequels generally do better than their predecessors (Age of Ultron is a notable exception), but this isn't an ordinary situation.
Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Feb 28, 2019 0:03:49 GMT
Both will fare well with repeat business. Marvel fans will see End Game multiple times to talk about how much they love it, and Star Wars fans will see IX multiple times to talk about how much they hate it.