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Post by quetee on Feb 23, 2019 23:00:38 GMT
We didn't have the Feb poll so...
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Post by quetee on Feb 23, 2019 23:10:02 GMT
I could be wrong, but I'm going with The Favourite.
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Post by akittystang on Feb 23, 2019 23:36:03 GMT
I'm thinking Roma but I'm hoping The Favourite (since it appears that Star is Born doesn't have a chance anymore ).
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Feb 23, 2019 23:37:48 GMT
I'm totally blackpilled about this awful year, and I enjoy chaos, so I'm predicting a clean sweep for Bohemian Rhapsody. Just imagine the meltdown folks would have!
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 23, 2019 23:43:16 GMT
I voted for Roma, but this year seems so crazy that I could see anything but Vice winning.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Feb 23, 2019 23:50:30 GMT
I'm picking Roma, but I'm hoping for a Black Panther surprise upset to see everyone's reactions .
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 24, 2019 0:13:29 GMT
I really want to say Roma, but I can't shake this gut feeling that Green Book will take it.
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Post by moonman157 on Feb 24, 2019 0:26:12 GMT
GOTTA OPEN UP THAT BOOK EVERYBODY, IT'S COMING FOR YA
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Post by Viced on Feb 24, 2019 0:27:44 GMT
Prayer circle for Roma losing.
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Post by moonman157 on Feb 24, 2019 0:32:23 GMT
Prayer circle for Roma losing. I kinda hope BoRap wins just for the shitstorm
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2019 1:16:41 GMT
Prayer circle for Roma losing. I kinda hope BoRap wins just for the shitstorm Black Panther winning would probably cause a bigger shitstorm considering the divided comic book legions. Either would be hilarious to see.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 24, 2019 1:19:29 GMT
A very odd year where the legit #1 (Roma) wins it. That win will be revolutionary (it already is really) - you're living in exciting times ........
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 24, 2019 1:36:40 GMT
It's gonna be Roma and I'm making peace with that. 50 years from now it won't matter so much whether one thinks Roma is great or merely good or in fact terrible. What matters is that it's about to make history.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Feb 24, 2019 1:38:19 GMT
I still don't doubt the Roma win, and I'm fine with it, as it's one of my Top 5 of the year.
A part of me does want Bohemian Rhapsody to win, just for shits and giggles.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 24, 2019 1:48:44 GMT
It's gonna be Roma and I'm making peace with that. 50 years from now it won't matter so much whether one thinks Roma is great or merely good or in fact terrible. What's going to matter is that it's made history. ............and Netflix has made history more than the film even - at a certain point it'll be impossible to differentiate this film from the "studio" that backed it and very consciously went out and got this Oscar winning film and the best Oscar manipulator and marketing team in the game to do their (evil, kidding) bidding. You're going to see the results of that win very very quickly too in 2019 - subscription price rising, Netflix differentiating themselves as the HBO of streaming services, thousand and thousand of proprietary product hours when everyone pulls their product off Netflix, more and more prestige filmmakers to come, and The Irishman looming. It's their world............we're just living in it........if that sounds unsettling well............pull for Green Book. It's a lot of change, instantly.
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Post by quetee on Feb 24, 2019 2:29:24 GMT
It's gonna be Roma and I'm making peace with that. 50 years from now it won't matter so much whether one thinks Roma is great or merely good or in fact terrible. What's going to matter is that it's made history. ............and Netflix has made history more than the film even - at a certain point it'll be impossible to differentiate this film from the "studio" that backed it and very consciously went out and got this Oscar winning film and the best Oscar manipulator and marketing team in the game to do their (evil, kidding) bidding. You're going to see the results of that win very very quickly too in 2019 - subscription price rising, Netflix differentiating themselves as the HBO of streaming services, thousand and thousand of proprietary product hours when everyone pulls their product off Netflix, more and more prestige filmmakers to come, and The Irishman looming. It's their world............we're just living in it........if that sounds unsettling well............pull for Green Book. It's a lot of change, instantly. HBO stays in their lane though. If Roma wins, the Academy will be changing some rules that's for sure. You know what, even if Roma doesn't win, I believe they will still change the rules.
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Post by Martin Stett on Feb 24, 2019 2:56:14 GMT
Roma, but The Favourite could be a surprise spoiler.
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Post by DeepArcher on Feb 24, 2019 3:33:07 GMT
Optimistically, Roma. Realistically, Green Book. Pessimistically, Bohemian Rhapsody.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 24, 2019 4:27:40 GMT
Roma
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Feb 24, 2019 10:00:22 GMT
Roma seems like the most obvious choice at this point, but I have a strange feeling Black Panther will win... or that we might be underestimating its chances...
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Feb 24, 2019 11:43:38 GMT
Roma
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Post by jimmalone on Feb 24, 2019 11:59:36 GMT
I still think Roma will win. But I could see an upset by Green Book.
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 24, 2019 12:25:16 GMT
I think Roma but I hope for the Favourite.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 24, 2019 15:42:26 GMT
Either Green Book, Roma, BKKK, or TF are the best bets here.
Green Book Pro - Won the PGA. Best Picture winner and PGA winner have lined-up 20/29 times or 69%. In the preferential ballot era, the PGA and Best Picture winner have lined up 78% of the time or 7/9. Con - No Best Director nomination. Its only happened four times. Twice, if you don't count Wings and Grand Hotel, back when we had only 2-3 nominees.
Roma Pro - Won the DGA and nominated for the most Oscars. The DGA winner and Best Picture winner have lined up 77% of the time. In the preferential ballot era, it's 6/9. The film with the most nominations has won 64% of the time. Con - No film editing nomination. Only 10 times has a Best Picture winner lacked an editing nomination. Also, it's a foreign language film and released by Netflix.
BlacKkKlansman Pro - It's the purest of them all. It's the only Best Picture nominee with nominations in acting, directing, writing, and editing, and scored all the major Guild nominations, including the ACE. Cons - Except for the BAFTA, it hasn't won any splashy awards this year. No Globes. No Critics Choice. No Guilds.
The Favourite Pros - Nominated for the most Oscars and scored nominations for acting, directing, editing, and writing. Cons - No major Best Picture or Guild wins. The Guilds didn't nominate it for the DGA and SAGE.
I am going to say Roma here, simply because it won the DGA and scored the most nominations.
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Post by jasonjoliepitt on Feb 24, 2019 16:26:13 GMT
I am going with The Favourite as that is the magic of preferential ballot.
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