Post by acmilan03c1 on Feb 12, 2019 5:57:16 GMT
Hey, guys! I'm back - for the usual reason... My yearly Best Picture simulation. As always, I will (hopefully) be gathering votes both here and at Awards Daily, and announcing the results a few days from now, once I've collected every vote and done the count. On Friday, Saturday or Sunday. So, without further ado... I once again invite all of the good folks willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I've done pretty much every year since 2011, and, hopefully, help us all better understand how this year's mad Best Picture race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot is likely to affect it. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end... Many thanks to all of those who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all of those who are about to, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
I saw that there was a thread asking a similar question, of course, and could have used it to collect the needed votes, but that was created three weeks ago, so things might have changed for some of you since then, in terms of rankings. Plus, it seems only fair for people to know exactly what they're voting on...
Sometimes the results of these are mostly indicative of the internet's favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will actually happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) The four-year streak of the movie that (according to most accounts) came in second place at the Oscars each year finishing in exactly second place in this simulation ended last year, but only sort of, as Three Billboards was eliminated in third place despite being TIED with the second place finisher in that round. (Call Me By Your Name only went through after I checked to see which of the two would have lost the "final" by a larger margin. I have no idea what the Academy does in these situations - when there is a tie for precisely second place. They probably count first place votes, like they do when there is a tie for first place.) So, in any case, one can say the Oscar Best Picture "loser" has always at least tied for second place (and never come in first) in this simulation over the last five years. Therefore, it will be very interesting, at least for myself, to see what finishes in that fateful position this year...
So, please rank the eight Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you would like to see each of them win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don't try to think like one of them would, but rather rank them according to your own tastes and wishes, of course)!
I would say that, ideally, a voter should have seen everything this year, or at least made an effort to do so (*cough* Roma - I know some people have had serious trouble getting through that... I didn't, personally, though I also didn't love it.), since most of the voters probably will have as well and, more importantly, any of the eight can be argued to have a shot at winning Best Picture. (Even though I, personally, believe only five or six of them, at most, can. And many people by now think it's down to only two...)
I plan to keep voting open until Saturday or Sunday. I might also decide to close voting and calculate the results on Friday. We'll see - I'll give due notice either way, as usual.
It appears I won't be able to vote myself this year, due to not having seen The Favourite (which is too likely to rank high for me). However, here's my mother's ballot (I asked her to rank these after she saw the last one, shortly after the nominations announcement, because I knew she might forget how she felt about at least some of them afterwards - prescription medication, long story -, so I felt that would probably be more relevant than having her rank them now):
1. Green Book
2. A Star is Born
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. Roma
Update: I can vote now, having finally seen The Favourite...
1. A Star is Born
2. Vice
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Roma
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
The roll of honor:
2011 The Social Network ----- details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 - not held -
2013 Zero Dark Thirty -------- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ---------------------- 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ----------------- 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road --- 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight --------------- 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ------- 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
I saw that there was a thread asking a similar question, of course, and could have used it to collect the needed votes, but that was created three weeks ago, so things might have changed for some of you since then, in terms of rankings. Plus, it seems only fair for people to know exactly what they're voting on...
Sometimes the results of these are mostly indicative of the internet's favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will actually happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) The four-year streak of the movie that (according to most accounts) came in second place at the Oscars each year finishing in exactly second place in this simulation ended last year, but only sort of, as Three Billboards was eliminated in third place despite being TIED with the second place finisher in that round. (Call Me By Your Name only went through after I checked to see which of the two would have lost the "final" by a larger margin. I have no idea what the Academy does in these situations - when there is a tie for precisely second place. They probably count first place votes, like they do when there is a tie for first place.) So, in any case, one can say the Oscar Best Picture "loser" has always at least tied for second place (and never come in first) in this simulation over the last five years. Therefore, it will be very interesting, at least for myself, to see what finishes in that fateful position this year...
So, please rank the eight Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you would like to see each of them win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don't try to think like one of them would, but rather rank them according to your own tastes and wishes, of course)!
I would say that, ideally, a voter should have seen everything this year, or at least made an effort to do so (*cough* Roma - I know some people have had serious trouble getting through that... I didn't, personally, though I also didn't love it.), since most of the voters probably will have as well and, more importantly, any of the eight can be argued to have a shot at winning Best Picture. (Even though I, personally, believe only five or six of them, at most, can. And many people by now think it's down to only two...)
I plan to keep voting open until Saturday or Sunday. I might also decide to close voting and calculate the results on Friday. We'll see - I'll give due notice either way, as usual.
It appears I won't be able to vote myself this year, due to not having seen The Favourite (which is too likely to rank high for me). However, here's my mother's ballot (I asked her to rank these after she saw the last one, shortly after the nominations announcement, because I knew she might forget how she felt about at least some of them afterwards - prescription medication, long story -, so I felt that would probably be more relevant than having her rank them now):
1. Green Book
2. A Star is Born
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. Roma
Update: I can vote now, having finally seen The Favourite...
1. A Star is Born
2. Vice
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Roma
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
The roll of honor:
2011 The Social Network ----- details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 - not held -
2013 Zero Dark Thirty -------- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ---------------------- 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ----------------- 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road --- 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight --------------- 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ------- 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
