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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 3, 2019 18:19:36 GMT
If editing is the most important principle of a film, then Dunkirk would've won Best Picture last year, and Hacksaw Ridge the year before that. Also Baby Driver was nominated last year, and that wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. Yes you did say “You could argue it's pretty much #1 in fact.” Also no catagory matches up perfectly with Oscar wins. Especially not your precious editing. Not even writing which should statistically be twice as likely to match every year.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Feb 3, 2019 18:23:01 GMT
If editing is the most important principle of a film, then Dunkirk would've won Best Picture last year, and Hacksaw Ridge the year before that. Also Baby Driver was nominated last year, and that wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. But neither Moonlight or Spotlight won Editing either. Crash won as it did Original Screenplay, and you're right, I think those 2 wins were enough to edge out Brokeback Mountain, as was the homophobia at that time. But also Shape of Water didn't win editing either, so your stats figures aren't always 100%.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 3, 2019 18:24:50 GMT
ehhh not anymore. Cuaron has been a lock for BD for weeks now, and Roma's chances just keep getting better with nothing else making a move. I'm not even sure The Favourite will get a boost on their own home turf at BAFTA anymore, and if BlacKkKlansman was looking to be a threat it would have won something by now. As for Green Book, I don't think it will overcome the directing snub and I don't think it could win the big prize with only a win for Ali. Of course if it wins screenplay then it would have a chance but I seriously doubt that it will. And it's not winning editing or Actor either so that leaves it dead in the water.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Feb 3, 2019 18:27:28 GMT
Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. Nowhere did bruinjoe96 say that directing is the most important principle of a film. He was merely arguing with your point that editing might arguably be the most important principle of a film. Exactly, to me, the most important principles of a film is how well it does in the big 8 categories and also the quantity of nominations. Roma did very well in the big 8 category, scoring 5 of the 8, and tied for the most nominations of the night.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 3, 2019 18:37:37 GMT
If editing is the most important principle of a film, then Dunkirk would've won Best Picture last year, and Hacksaw Ridge the year before that. Also Baby Driver was nominated last year, and that wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. But in terms of the Oscar, Best Director is considered more prestigious - than editing, writing.
The FACT is that in this century, the majority of Best Pictures also had Best Director wins. And the examples above did have Director nods. Unlike Green Book. Unlike 3 Billboards.
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 3, 2019 19:15:16 GMT
I'm feeling a little better about Roma now that it won DGA, and Green Book lost at the Editing Guild. Plus, I could see Roma winning Best Film at BAFTA, and The Favourite winning Best British Film, so they both get awarded. And in that case, it would keep the momentum going for Roma over Green Book.
I just worry because Green Book did win on a preferential ballot at PGA; although, I don't think there's a lot of overlap between members of the PGA and the Academy Awards. Plus, I would imagine that members of the PGA are generally more older and white while the new membership for the the Oscars has driven the age now somewhat and added more diversity. So my feeling is that it's going to come down to the old membership vs. the new membership for Best Picture. Obviously that's just a generalization because I'm sure that there will be older voters that put Roma as their #1 film and younger voters who put Green Book as their #1 film, but basically I think that it might come down to that.
Plus, there is the Driving Miss Daisy factor that frightens me. It won Best Film at the National Board of Review, won Best Comedy at the Golden Globes, and won PGA like Driving Miss Daisy did. Of course, there's the Spike Lee factor. Although Lee was nominated this year, he was famously snubbed for Do the Right Thing the year that Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture despite DMD missing out on a director's nomination.
However, I think there's enough differences between the two that make me more confident in GB not pulling a DMD. DMD was nominated for 9 Oscars compared to GB's 5. Dan Aykroyd got a surprise supporting nomination whereas Linda Cardellini, someone who has been working in Hollywood since the late '90s, couldn't make it in over newcomer Marina de Tavira. I also don't remember that much controversy surrounding DMD. I just remember there being controversy over the Do the Right Thing snub.
I also think Born on the Fourth of July was probably runner-up, but Oliver Stone had won Best Picture just a few years prior to that, and the Academy seems reluctant to give out the top prize to a director more than twice going by Spielberg and Iñárritu both winning Best Director, but losing Best Picture when their films were favored to win.
Cuaron has never won Best Picture; although, he did come close with Gravity, so that could be another factor working in his favor.
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Post by DeepArcher on Feb 3, 2019 19:39:53 GMT
Yes! I think Jenkins takes Best Director and First Man takes Picture. It's reverse 2016, get it? No way the Academy passes up that opportunity.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 21:54:05 GMT
Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. But neither Moonlight or Spotlight won Editing either. Crash won as it did Original Screenplay, and you're right, I think those 2 wins were enough to edge out Brokeback Mountain, as was the homophobia at that time. But also Shape of Water didn't win editing either, so your stats figures aren't always 100%. The Shape of Water was nominated for editing. The reason why I ended up predicting TSOW to win was because it was nominated for directing, writing, and editing, and won both the PGA and DGA. I saw the Billboards director miss and TSOW SAGE miss as a wash. On top of that, Billboards ending lacked the uplifting and conclusiveness some people wanted to see. My point has always been that editing is an important nomination, if you want to win Best Picture. Ditto for directing and screenplay. I am not signaling just editing. That's the point I have been trying to make, and some of you continue to distort my argument. Sometimes a film wins Best Picture without getting nominated for director, writing, and editing. 2019 looks like an exception year, simply because The Favourite, Vice, and BlacKkKlansman are not winning these big awards. I cannot in good conscience predict a film to Best Picture without winning PGA, DGA, SAGE, or WGA.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 22:14:49 GMT
Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. Yes you did say “You could argue it's pretty much #1 in fact.” Also no catagory matches up perfectly with Oscar wins. Especially not your precious editing. Not even writing which should statistically be twice as likely to match every year. I used the word "could", as in a possibility. I never said it is. Look up the definition of could, if you don't believe me. You see, here's the problem. Maybe I didn't write it properly, and if I didn't, I apologize. My point here is that most Best Picture winners scored nominations for directing, writing, and editing. Very rarely does a film win best picture without all three nominated. Since 2000, we have Argo and Birdman, and that's it. Argo didn't have the directing nomination, Birdman lacked the editing nomination. So if a film is up for Best Picture and it lacks a writing nomination, I would consider that a negative. That doesn't mean, I wouldn't predict it. It just means that other things have to come into play in order to override the negative. It has never been my "precious editing stat". I don't have a special editing stat. "My stat" has to do with being nominated for director, screenplay, and editing. The funny thing here is, my point was that the director-writing-editing stat goes out the window this year. Ditto for the SAGE-DGA-PGA stat. I am favoring ROMA because it won the DGA (the most accurate predictor) and scored the most nominations. I am not sure how this is so offensive/fiercely disagreeable to you. All what I am pointing out is probability. Where we might disagree on is the principle that ROMA is the heavily favorite to win. I don't agree with that. But it's the most probable winner -- Roma.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 22:22:05 GMT
Never said editing is the most important principle of a film. My vote has always goes to writing. But more importantly, if directing is #1, why did Moonlight win over La La Land, Spotlight over Revenant, Crash over BBM? Your logical sequence makes no sense. But in terms of the Oscar, Best Director is considered more prestigious - than editing, writing.
The FACT is that in this century, the majority of Best Pictures also had Best Director wins. And the examples above did have Director nods. Unlike Green Book. Unlike 3 Billboards.
Hence why DGA is the most important Best Picture predictor, and why I am leaning toward Roma. There were some years, where I didn't predict the DGA winner to take Oscar, and got it right. The Revenant - No WGA and SAGE nominations, and lacked a writing nod at the Oscars. Spotlight was up for director, writing, and editing. Gravity - Same reasons as the Revenant. 12 Years had nominations for director, writing, and editing, and won the PGA. So again, you guys seem to be disagreeing about something I never actually said.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Feb 3, 2019 22:36:44 GMT
No. I predict a repeat from last year.
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Post by quetee on Feb 4, 2019 4:06:07 GMT
Yep. I'm fine with being wrong, if I'm wrong.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Feb 4, 2019 15:17:53 GMT
ehhh not anymore. Cuaron has been a lock for BD for weeks now, and Roma's chances just keep getting better with nothing else making a move. I'm not even sure The Favourite will get a boost on their own home turf at BAFTA anymore, and if BlacKkKlansman was looking to be a threat it would have won something by now. As for Green Book, I don't think it will overcome the directing snub and I don't think it could win the big prize with only a win for Ali. Of course if it wins screenplay then it would have a chance but I seriously doubt that it will. And it's not winning editing or Actor either so that leaves it dead in the water. Green Book is nowhere near 'dead in the water'. It has Editing and Screenplay nominations and could upset at WGA. It has PGA as well. Your bias and bob Coppola's are showing
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Post by moonman157 on Feb 4, 2019 15:24:03 GMT
Green Book baby!
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Post by mrimpossible on Feb 4, 2019 15:34:58 GMT
Yes I am. Green Book for BP and Rome for directing.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 4, 2019 15:48:05 GMT
ehhh not anymore. Cuaron has been a lock for BD for weeks now, and Roma's chances just keep getting better with nothing else making a move. I'm not even sure The Favourite will get a boost on their own home turf at BAFTA anymore, and if BlacKkKlansman was looking to be a threat it would have won something by now. As for Green Book, I don't think it will overcome the directing snub and I don't think it could win the big prize with only a win for Ali. Of course if it wins screenplay then it would have a chance but I seriously doubt that it will. And it's not winning editing or Actor either so that leaves it dead in the water. Green Book is nowhere near 'dead in the water'. It has Editing and Screenplay nominations and could upset at WGA. It has PGA as well. yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Feb 4, 2019 15:51:03 GMT
Green Book is nowhere near 'dead in the water'. It has Editing and Screenplay nominations and could upset at WGA. It has PGA as well. yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides. Not really given Spotlight pulled it off with one writing win in a very similar race......
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 4, 2019 16:00:57 GMT
yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides. Not really given Spotlight pulled it off with one writing win in a very similar race...... but it was a big one: screenplay. And McCarthy had also been nominated for director.
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Post by quetee on Feb 4, 2019 16:27:57 GMT
I never said Green Book
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Post by jimmalone on Feb 4, 2019 16:34:48 GMT
Green Book is nowhere near 'dead in the water'. It has Editing and Screenplay nominations and could upset at WGA. It has PGA as well. yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides. I don't think Green Book winning Screenplay is a longshot.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 4, 2019 16:55:31 GMT
yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides. I don't think Green Book winning Screenplay is a longshot. It's handily in second place though. Green Book is only the frontrunner at the WGAs because The Favourite was ineligible.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Feb 4, 2019 19:10:52 GMT
Not predicting but rooting for BlacKKKlansman / Cuaron split ...
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Post by jimmalone on Feb 4, 2019 20:23:42 GMT
I don't think Green Book winning Screenplay is a longshot. It's handily in second place though. Green Book is only the frontrunner at the WGAs because The Favourite was ineligible. Yeah, it's only in second place, but it wouldn't be a surprise if it won. I'd actually predict it to win at the oscars.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2019 1:36:17 GMT
Green Book is nowhere near 'dead in the water'. It has Editing and Screenplay nominations and could upset at WGA. It has PGA as well. yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides. How is screenplay a long shot?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 5, 2019 2:18:47 GMT
yeah it's not "dead in the water" per se but if it doesn't win editing or screenplay (which are both longshiots), it has absolutely no chance to win best picture. Even if Farrelly had gotten into the BD race it would still be wildly unprecedented for a movie to win BP with only an acting win besides. How is screenplay a long shot? because The Favourite has dominated the category for most of the season. Also it's the most nominated film there along with Roma (and they're important nominations too, BP, BD, screenplay, three acting, and editing...AMPAS really liked this film) so I don't see it coming away without any major wins, and with Colman and Weisz likely missing wins themselves, screenplay seems the likeliest place for it to score. The Favourite is also going to get a boost at BAFTA. Sure it's possible for Green Book to miraculously sweep in and take BP and screenplay but I seriously doubt that will happen. Roma has picked up too much momentum, Green Book was snubbed for director, and The Favourite still seems the favorite for screenplay. Only Ali is happening, count on it.
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