speeders
Based
Posts: 4,093 
Likes: 2,211
|
Post by speeders on Jan 29, 2019 18:37:56 GMT
Yes, I know this is ridiculously early, but I was looking at my early predictions from this time last year and had a bunch of correct guesses so why not try again?
I meant to post this last week but I thought everyone was already having Oscar nomination hangover, so now is the right time.
BEST PICTURE
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
The French Dispatch
Fair and Balanced
Little Women
Harriet
The Pope
The Report
You Are My Friend (Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Queen & Slim
HM:
Just Mercy
The Goldfinch
Us
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Kasi Lemmons, Harriet
HM:
Potential First Time Nominees
Marielle Heller, You Are My Friend
Jay Roach, Fair and Balanced
John Crowley, The Goldfinch
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Possibly returning vets
Steven Soderbergh, The Laundromat
Fernando Meirelles, The Pope
ACTOR
Jonathan Pryce, The Pope
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
HM:
Potential First Time Nominees
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Ansel Elgort, The Goldfinch
Matthew Rhys, You Are My Friend
Possibly returning vets
Gary Oldman, The Laundromat
Adam Driver, The Report
Timothée Chalamet, The King
Tom Hanks, You Are My Friend (possibly supporting)
Bradley Cooper, Bernstein (doubt it will be finished in time)
ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Fair and Balanced
Michelle Williams, The Challenger/Janis/This is Jane (depending on which gets made first)
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
HM:
Potential First Time Nominees
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Sin
Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Possibly returning vets
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky
Cate Blanchett, Lucy and Desi
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
SUPPORTING ACTOR
John Lithgow, Fair and Balanced
Timothée Chalamet, Little Women (or The French Dispatch)
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Pope
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
HM:
Potential First Time Nominees
Jeffrey Wright, The Goldfinch
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Leslie Odom Jr., Harriet
Richard Madden, Rocketman
Jon Hamm, Lucy in the Sky/The Report
Matthew Rhys, You Are My Friend (frauded into supporting)
Possibly returning vets
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Willem Dafoe, The Last Thing He Wanted
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/Fair and Balanced
Annette Bening, The Report
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer, Luce
Nicole Kidman, Fair and Balanced/The Goldfinch
HM:
Potential First Time Nominees
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Eliza Scanlan, Little Women
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Emma Watson, Little Women
Possibly returning vets
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Brie Larson, Just Mercy
Laura Dern, Little Women
Meryl Streep, Little Women
Saiorse Ronan, Ammonite/The French Dispatch
|
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Jan 29, 2019 19:47:52 GMT
I don't want to see Streep being nominated again so soon, I think I've had enough... Yet you claim she might (just might) gets two nominations.  Di Caprio is not a supporting actor in Once Upon. Brad Pitt could very easily get a nom, though. Oh, and Hanks is the lead guy in the Rogers biopic, not the second lead. |
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Jan 29, 2019 20:25:56 GMT
I dunno, something tells me Pacino may be more major in the QT flick - neither film can get more than 2 in BSA at most you'd think - so that might be a way to nod him and someone else from The Irishman. Something about QT and his writing the role for him after seeing China Doll - that means something - he never loved Pacino or talked about him until he saw that play and that play despite being something of a trainwreck in Act 1 was a Pacino long speech special with some distinctly Pacinoesque moments of genius in it. Like you couldn't see that play and logically think he'd write him something small from seeing that.
That combination is potentially a great one - he was really taken by that piece it seems.
|
|
LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
Posts: 2,300 
Likes: 2,834
|
Post by LaraQ on Jan 29, 2019 21:05:45 GMT
There's something horribly inevitable about Little Women getting a BP nomination next year.I'm guessing Gerwig will get one too, mainly due to the lack of female directors in this years line up,the Academy won't want a repeat of that.Saoirse,Laura Dern and fuckin Meryl are probably getting nominated too.My excitement level for this film,despite the cast,is zero.  |
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Jan 29, 2019 21:14:53 GMT
I dunno, something tells me Pacino may be more major in the QT flick - neither film can get more than 2 in BSA at most you'd think - so that might be a way to nod him and someone else from The Irishman. Something about QT and his writing the role for him after seeing China Doll - that means something - he never loved Pacino or talked about him until he saw that play and that play despite being something of a trainwreck in Act 1 was a Pacino long speech special with some distinctly Pacinoesque moments of genius in it. Like you couldn't see that play and logically think he'd write him something small from seeing that. That combination is potentially a great one - he was really taken by that piece it seems. I'm not so sure about that. I guess Pacino's role in Once Upon will be pretty small. Something like 2-3 scenes with sharp dialogue. After all, QT has gathered way too many star actors to give each one a major role. While, as I mentioned in another post, The Irishman nominations for Scorsese, picture and Al P seem to be a lock. That is, if the CGI doesn't ruin the whole movie from scratch. Of course, Brad Pitt's SA nom for OUATIH looks pretty sure to me. |
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Jan 29, 2019 21:46:47 GMT
I kind of doubt that DiCaprio and Pitt wouldn't go Lead, regardless of what their placement should be. I think it's much more likely that someone like Pacino (who I also think goes Lead for The Irishman, but that's a bit beside the point) would be recognized in Supporting, and that DiCaprio and Pitt won't be in their respective category -- to the best of my knowledge, Tarantino has never written an Oscar-nominated leading role, has he? Kind of always gives the meaty parts to the supporting players, it's just his style, and this sounds like the *most* QT film ever so there's no reason to believe that will change. And though as I've said in my Jonathan Pryce thread that I think making predictions any time before late August is absolute lunacy, I do think Robbie is very, very likely to be a big contender for her role here.
EDIT: Nevermind, Travolta was nominated, but I never woulda guessed that in a million years.
|
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 29, 2019 23:11:12 GMT
I kind of doubt that DiCaprio and Pitt wouldn't go Lead, regardless of what their placement should be. I think it's much more likely that someone like Pacino (who I also think goes Lead for The Irishman, but that's a bit beside the point) would be recognized in Supporting, and that DiCaprio and Pitt won't be in their respective category -- to the best of my knowledge, Tarantino has never written an Oscar-nominated leading role, has he? Kind of always gives the meaty parts to the supporting players, it's just his style, and this sounds like the *most* QT film ever so there's no reason to believe that will change. And though as I've said in my Jonathan Pryce thread that I think making predictions any time before late August is absolute lunacy, I do think Robbie is very, very likely to be a big contender for her role here. EDIT: Nevermind, Travolta was nominated, but I never woulda guessed that in a million years. Pulp fiction was nominated for lead. |
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Jan 29, 2019 23:17:39 GMT
There's something horribly inevitable about Little Women getting a BP nomination next year.I'm guessing Gerwig will get one too, mainly due to the lack of female directors in this years line up,the Academy won't want a repeat of that.Saoirse,Laura Dern and fuckin Meryl are probably getting nominated too.My excitement level for this film,despite the cast,is zero. You're probably right, but I think people are overestimating. I get why, but it's been so many times before that I don't know if Gerwig is really going to bring anything new to it. Plus, I though the 1994 version was very good, so for me, this version is going to be hard to measure up to that. On the other hand, I didn't think the fourth version of A Star Is Born would do so well either; although, I think as we're seeing in the actual awards stage, that people like it, but that they don't love it enough to really award it anything big. I could see something like that with Little Women. It gets a lot of nominations everywhere, but no major wins. As for everything else, I haven't really thought much about it yet. I think that Margot Robbie seems like a very good bet already for Best Supporting Actress. She came very close to being nominated this year, and next year if Once Upon a Time lives up to the hype, it just seems like the perfect time and role to award her since she's the new "it" younger actress. In Supporting Actor, depending on Fair and Balanced, John Lithgow is so respected and Supporting Actor is generally kinder to veteran actors that I could see him sweeping everything like I assume Robbie probably will. For Best Actress, Charlize Theron looked unrecognizable as Megyn Kelly, but if Harriet has similar MC/RT scores as The Wife, I think that would be enough for Cynthia Erivo given how baity her role will be, and how much I'm sure she's going to campaign given her EGOT thirst that she's expressed on her Twitter. I have no clue in the other categories except that I'll probably predict Tom Hanks and Nicole Kidman, and they'll both miss again.  |
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 29, 2019 23:30:18 GMT
There's something horribly inevitable about Little Women getting a BP nomination next year.I'm guessing Gerwig will get one too, mainly due to the lack of female directors in this years line up,the Academy won't want a repeat of that.Saoirse,Laura Dern and fuckin Meryl are probably getting nominated too.My excitement level for this film,despite the cast,is zero. You're probably right, but I think people are overestimating. I get why, but it's been so many times before that I don't know if Gerwig is really going to bring anything new to it. Plus, I though the 1994 version was very good, so for me, this version is going to be hard to measure up to that. On the other hand, I didn't think the fourth version of A Star Is Born would do so well either; although, I think as we're seeing in the actual awards stage, that people like it, but that they don't love it enough to really award it anything big. I could see something like that with Little Women. It gets a lot of nominations everywhere, but no major wins. As for everything else, I haven't really thought much about it yet. I think that Margot Robbie seems like a very good bet already for Best Supporting Actress. She came very close to being nominated this year, and next year if Once Upon a Time lives up to the hype, it just seems like the perfect time and role to award her since she's the new "it" younger actress. In Supporting Actor, depending on Fair and Balanced, John Lithgow is so respected and Supporting Actor is generally kinder to veteran actors that I could see him sweeping everything like I assume Robbie probably will. For Best Actress, Charlize Theron looked unrecognizable as Megyn Kelly, but if Harriet has similar MC/RT scores as The Wife, I think that would be enough for Cynthia Erivo given how baity her role will be, and how much I'm sure she's going to campaign given her EGOT thirst that she's expressed on her Twitter. I have no clue in the other categories except that I'll probably predict Tom Hanks and Nicole Kidman, and they'll both miss again. a star is born had same story beats but the songs were different. How different can Little Women be? So far judging by pictures everything looks the same. Maybe she uses part of book that has never been adapted but still ughh...besides ASIB made $200 plus mil. |
|
|
|
Post by jimmalone on Jan 30, 2019 8:19:32 GMT
Far too early, but I think "The Irishman", "The Laundromat" and "The French Dispatch" will be Best Picture contenders.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Jan 30, 2019 11:20:33 GMT
I have a good feeling about Jojo Rabbit.
|
|
LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
Posts: 2,300
Likes: 2,834
|
Post by LaraQ on Jan 30, 2019 12:20:56 GMT
Far too early, but I think "The Irishman", "The Laundromat" and "The French Dispatch" will be Best Picture contenders. If The French Dispatch is released this year it may well be a contender. |
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 30, 2019 12:35:08 GMT
I sincerely hope Little Women flops miserably so that Greta Gerwig would stahp.
|
|
speeders
Based
Posts: 4,093
Likes: 2,211
|
Post by speeders on Jan 30, 2019 14:24:26 GMT
I don't want to see Streep being nominated again so soon, I think I've had enough... Yet you claim she might (just might) gets two nominations. Di Caprio is not a supporting actor in Once Upon. Brad Pitt could very easily get a nom, though. Oh, and Hanks is the lead guy in the Rogers biopic, not the second lead. I'm not claiming anything, just predicting. Trust me, I'm probably more sick of Streep than you are and if she's never nominated again, that'll be too late... I also do not think she'll be double nominated. Her Little Women part is small and I think Streep, Dern, Watson, Scanlan and Pugh will all cancel each other out. Here's hoping this is the year Streep is snubbed. But after 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017 I've learned my lesson of counting her out of a nomination.clai I've read on multiple forums that "Once Upon a Time" will be an ensemble without a clear a lead that DiCaprio will campaign supporting... but that feels too early for such a statement so I'll take it with a grain of salt. I originally had him in lead but moved him to supporting last minute because I thought it was likelier, esp. if he has lesser screentime than we expect. And nope, the story is from Rhys' perspective, he's the one with the main arc, Mr. Rogers is more supporting. But like I said, category fraud seems very likely. |
|
speeders
Based
Posts: 4,093
Likes: 2,211
|
Post by speeders on Jan 30, 2019 14:27:13 GMT
There's something horribly inevitable about Little Women getting a BP nomination next year.I'm guessing Gerwig will get one too, mainly due to the lack of female directors in this years line up,the Academy won't want a repeat of that.Saoirse,Laura Dern and fuckin Meryl are probably getting nominated too.My excitement level for this film,despite the cast,is zero. You're probably right, but I think people are overestimating. I get why, but it's been so many times before that I don't know if Gerwig is really going to bring anything new to it. Plus, I though the 1994 version was very good, so for me, this version is going to be hard to measure up to that. On the other hand, I didn't think the fourth version of A Star Is Born would do so well either; although, I think as we're seeing in the actual awards stage, that people like it, but that they don't love it enough to really award it anything big. I could see something like that with Little Women. It gets a lot of nominations everywhere, but no major wins. As for everything else, I haven't really thought much about it yet. I think that Margot Robbie seems like a very good bet already for Best Supporting Actress. She came very close to being nominated this year, and next year if Once Upon a Time lives up to the hype, it just seems like the perfect time and role to award her since she's the new "it" younger actress. In Supporting Actor, depending on Fair and Balanced, John Lithgow is so respected and Supporting Actor is generally kinder to veteran actors that I could see him sweeping everything like I assume Robbie probably will. For Best Actress, Charlize Theron looked unrecognizable as Megyn Kelly, but if Harriet has similar MC/RT scores as The Wife, I think that would be enough for Cynthia Erivo given how baity her role will be, and how much I'm sure she's going to campaign given her EGOT thirst that she's expressed on her Twitter. I have no clue in the other categories except that I'll probably predict Tom Hanks and Nicole Kidman, and they'll both miss again. Robbie particularly, Lithgow and Erivo certainly feel like a sure bet on paper, but usually things end up being different down the line. I too have a strong gut feelign about them. I certainly hope Little Women will be a non-starter but unfortunately, I think it will do well no matter the quality. |
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Jan 30, 2019 16:23:55 GMT
I don't want to see Streep being nominated again so soon, I think I've had enough... Yet you claim she might (just might) gets two nominations. Di Caprio is not a supporting actor in Once Upon. Brad Pitt could very easily get a nom, though. Oh, and Hanks is the lead guy in the Rogers biopic, not the second lead. I'm not claiming anything, just predicting. Trust me, I'm probably more sick of Streep than you are and if she's never nominated again, that'll be too late... I also do not think she'll be double nominated. Her Little Women part is small and I think Streep, Dern, Watson, Scanlan and Pugh will all cancel each other out. Here's hoping this is the year Streep is snubbed. But after 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017 I've learned my lesson of counting her out of a nomination.clai I've read on multiple forums that "Once Upon a Time" will be an ensemble without a clear a lead that DiCaprio will campaign supporting... but that feels too early for such a statement so I'll take it with a grain of salt. I originally had him in lead but moved him to supporting last minute because I thought it was likelier, esp. if he has lesser screentime than we expect. And nope, the story is from Rhys' perspective, he's the one with the main arc, Mr. Rogers is more supporting. But like I said, category fraud seems very likely. That's actually what I meant by "claiming", sorry for my english. I tend to believe that Streep will be getting nominated for ever... Just by standing in front of the camera. I mean, I love her, she is probably the greatest living actress and has been for the last 30 years or so. But that thing with the nominations is kind of ridiculous. I believe Leo will be the lead, no matter what. He will be the lead in a movie full of supporting roles. No SA nomination of this movie, I guess, with the exception of Brad Pitt (if they promote him as a supporting guy). Rumor has it the Academy kind of owes him an acting Oscar. |
|
|
|
Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 30, 2019 17:42:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Feb 24, 2019 19:05:00 GMT
One thing to consider is years are often reactions to other years or reactions within the same year. Tonight is a unity year - either a women's picture (poor unknown Mexican women on stage - fight the patriarchy!  ) is going to win or a race unifying pic (Green Book) is going to win. In 2019 I still say the 2 "big" films are set in the past, have no female or minority or social conscience presence in them at all it would appear. Many of the other bigger films have it in the past exclusively (Harriet, Little Women). The ones that are the most potentially interesting are like "timely" stuff like Fair and Balanced - which are really tough to pull off, but in theory would offer something unique in 2020 and which basically is what you'd think a BP needs to have now. That's how I see this next race - if QT wins its like saying - this could have won any year ever.............if it's something like Fair and Balanced you'd say "we need this now" |
|
) is going to win or a race unifying pic (Green Book) is going to win.