Lets Talk Best Actor Race: Whose in, whose out

I'd like Washington or Gosling to make it, even though I didn't like First Man much aside from Gosling.

Still, as we are talking who we think is getting in, and for me I feel it might still be Hawke.

It'll be Washington

Washington is the safest choice. He's got SAG and GG, and he's in a strong film.

I'm still sticking with Washington. He was fortunate at BAFTA that Coogan, who isn't as big of a threat for the last spot got in over Hawke and Dafoe, and BlacKkKlansman showed how strong it is overall despite missing Best Actor. Plus, BAFTA doesn't have a very good track record with African-American nominees too like his dad has never been nominated for whatever reason.

He still has SAG and Globe nominations, he'll be in a Best Picture nominee perhaps even a top 3 BP nominee, and he's got his famous dad helping campaign for him. I think that's enough even with Hawke winning the critics award by a large margin over everyone else in this category and being a previous nominee. This year, it seems that there's an even bigger divide between the industry and critics awards except for Roma for the most part, and Hawke could be a victim of that. Add in A24 not campaigning that much this year as they have been, and First Reformed not likely to get any other nominations which means I think will lead to Hawke missing.

I'm not really sure what's going on with A24 if it's financial problems or because they don't think it's worth it to campaign that much if they don't have a big Best Picture contender, but Hawke and Collette deserved better.

Thanks I forgot that I saw a tweet about that right before the BAFTA announcements. (It was a long night staying up, and then being too excited to go back to sleep when they finally came out.) 

I think Coogan would have got in anyway because of the home advantage, but it's good for Washington either way that it turned out be someone who likely isn't going to be much of a factor in the Best Actor race was nominated over someone that could have been. 

Plus, I notice the film twitter did its thing to an extent after the announcements, and went after BAFTA for only nominating Driver from BlacKkKlansman along with going after BAFTA for other reasons (no King, no female directors, etc.). I don't think BAFTA cares about optics as much as the Oscar do; although, I think that Bohemian Rhapsody missing Best Film could have been due to not wanting too much negative attention, although Singer still got a nomination for Best British Film. Since the Oscars do care about such things, at least to some extent, I think that will also help Washington. 

It's going to Washington because there's going to be lots of love for his film and because he's great in it.

Dafoe and Hawke are longshots (both apparently too artsy in a season where the obvious and safe picks are dominating the major precursors)

Coogan and Hedges have no chance

Yep. Only Hawke's wins were much more.

I find it hard to believe a performance with this many trophies would get left out.

Didn't stop Mahershala Ali from getting a nod (and win!) for Moonlight.

Meh - I may be predisposed to not liking Lee's films - he keeps trying, and so do I (bless us both) but what Washington does isn't that hard, certainly not on the planet of what Hawke did - so while I don't dispute that he may be deserving of some praise (and I'm being nice because he doesn't get that much from me - he's fine) he's not deserving of a slot here which was, you know the point of the thread.

........and speaking about things I am predisposed to not liking - I don't like Ethan Hawke particularly.  Yet, he deserves to win this year for the performance of his life.
 
See, I'm weird that way, if you do something special I will say so but if you make Blackkklansman well..............not so much (anyone curious can see my thoughts in that thread, 6.5/10).